The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Identifieur interne : 000B01 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000B00; suivant : 000B02The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Auteurs : Hiroyasu Inoue [Japon] ; Yasuyuki Todo [Japon]Source :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Betacoronavirus (isolement et purification), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (anatomopathologie), Infections à coronavirus (prévention et contrôle), Infections à coronavirus (virologie), Japon (MeSH), Modèles théoriques (MeSH), Pandémies (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (anatomopathologie), Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (virologie), Récession économique (MeSH), Tokyo (MeSH).
- MESH :
- anatomopathologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- isolement et purification : Betacoronavirus.
- prévention et contrôle : Infections à coronavirus, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale.
- virologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Humains, Japon, Modèles théoriques, Récession économique, Tokyo.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Japon.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Betacoronavirus (isolation & purification), COVID-19 (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (pathology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (virology), Economic Recession (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Japan (MeSH), Models, Theoretical (MeSH), Pandemics (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (pathology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (virology), SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH), Tokyo (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic : Japan, Tokyo.
- isolation & purification : Betacoronavirus.
- pathology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral.
- virology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- COVID-19, Economic Recession, Humans, Models, Theoretical, SARS-CoV-2.
Abstract
This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country's annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239251
PubMed: 32931506
PubMed Central: PMC7491714
Affiliations:
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The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country's annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32931506</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>23</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>18</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>15</Volume><Issue>9</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS One</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e0239251</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0239251</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. 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